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Weather Wise-September 2022

published: September 2nd 2022
by: Brian Bledsoe

After suffering through such a nasty stretch of heat and dryness, some rain actually fell. In some cases, it was a lot of rain. The map below rainfall anomalies during the past two weeks…

You can see some areas have been anywhere from 2 to 10+ inches above average. Obviously, that’s too much of a good thing at once, as a lot of it ran off. However, if you were trying to fill watering holes, then this was a good thing. Some areas of the region were not sof ortunate. Note the dry spot in central Texas and across Oklahoma and Kansas. At any rate, it was nice to see some serious rain for a change, courtesy of deep tropical moisture.

Does this mean a pattern change? Is this the end of La Niña? While short term relief will likely continue to occur for some areas, this certainly isn’t the end of La Niña.

The graphic below shows a high likelihood La Niña will hang around until late winter.

This takes into account several different computer models and most of them are fully on board with La Niña hanging around. The one silver lining to this? It could POSSIBLY weaken late this winter, which would allow for better precipitation potential in February through April. If this weakening trend occurs sooner, then it is possible our better precipitation chances will occur sooner. As of right now, I don't see much changing until at least January.

The images below reflect the current model forecast for the next several months…









EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Forecast

October 





November






December






January






February






NMME Model Precipitation Forecast 

October









November










December










January










February

As you can see above, both models reflect a very La Niña look to the precipitation forecast. Drier than average southern tier of the country with wetter than average conditions across the northern tier of the country. This isn’t surprising given that both models are forecasting La Niña to continue through most of the winter. Does this mean there won’t be storms that we can capitalize on? No, not at all… It simply means that the frequency of those storms will likely be reduced, thus continuing to keep us drier than we would like. So, enjoy our moisture chances for the next month or so…



 

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