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Weather Wise July 2022

published: July 8th 2022
by: Brian Bledsoe

I’m writing this just before the latest long range model updates arrive. However, there likely isn’t going to be a lot of change in them, from the last time we chatted. Here is a look at the latest sea surface temperature anomalies:



Again, you can see all of the blue shading along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. While La Niña may have had some weakening (which is typical this time of year), it is still very much present. The fact that it has never truly went away and maintained some of its strength– will make it easier to intensify again this fall. Here is an update on the likelihood of La Niña in the coming months…



You can see that the majority of the computer models keep their forecasts at -0.5 or lower for the next several months. That keeps us firmly in La Niña territory with a high likelihood of intensification. 


So, what does that mean for us? With hurricane season upon us, we always have the chance at scoring a tropical storm or hurricane, which would help significantly with the drought that will maintain for some areas and reemerge for others. But as I always say, that is a wild card that I will rarely bank on… The latest IRI Model Ensemble precipitation forecast looks like this:












August - October







The map above shows mainly average rainfall for the white shaded areas, with a little green shading over Southwest Texas. This may be due to increased tropical storm / hurricane activity. Fingers crossed that will occur, and hopefully erode much of the drought and developing drought in the region. But as I have said before, that scenario is really tough to count on…







October - December



The reason I am hoping for those tropical rains, is due to the likelihood of more La Niña induced dryness for the last quarter of the year. The map above shows a strong dry signal for the southern tier of the country in the fall and early winter. Given the fact that La Niña is likely to be around and could be fairly stout, this scenario seems very plausible. And one I think you should plan for…


I will see you all at the 2022 Texas A&M Beef Cattle Short Course next month, where I will have a fresh update. See you then!



 

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