Weather Wise January 2023

The image above shows that there is still quite a bit in the way of colder than average water along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, it is to a lesser degree than it was just a month ago. This is kind of what I thought would start to happen as we entered 2023. Are the latest models in agreement with the continued weakening? I’d say yes…

The image above shows the probabilities of La Niña (blue bars), neutral (gray bars), and El Niño (red bars) As you can see, La Niña probabilities essentially go to zero in the spring, and El Niño probabilities exceed 50% by later this summer. This is about as strong of a signal as you will see at this range… Good news!

Some of the latest computer models paint somewhat of a mixed signal in terms of precipitation this spring. The map below shows drier than average conditions being favored for West Texas and most of the Southwest, with average precipitation favored farther east. The map below is a forecast for February, March, April…

This wouldn’t be out of the ordinary, as the Pacific Ocean is still cool…regardless of whether La Niña is completely gone. That situation would favor drier than average conditions for the Southwest US. 

At any rate, I like the direction we are headed. While it isn’t perfect and it will take some time to get there, I am optimistic about 2023 and the end of La Niña.