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Weather Wise April 2023

published: March 31st 2023
by: Brian Bledsoe
source: Southern Livestock Standard

With La Niña having departed, it is time to focus on exactly what is happening next. Well, if you read this column regularly, you know that we’ve been talking about the transition to El Niño for quite some time. Here is a look at the latest sea surface temperature anomaly map:

Notice the warmer than average water that has taken over off the west coast of South America, and there is virtually no colder than average water present along the equator. Quite different from just a few months ago…


All of the models and probabilities seem to be on board with the transition and subsequent El Niño event. 

You can see the high probabilities of El Niño development through spring and summer. The next question would be, how strong of an event is this likely to be? Well, that is still somewhat tough to tell… However, here is the latest model forecast for possible El Niño intensity, from April through August:



Notice how all but one of the models are similar with their intensity forecasts. However, one of them is quite a bit stronger. That model comes from the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia. They do excellent work with their modeling and forecasting, so when I see something like that, it definitely raises my level of awareness. At any rate, whether the event will be that strong by that time or not, the consensus is definitely for an El Niño event of some sort and is something we’ll have to pay close attention to…

Next month, I will focus on what this could mean for the rest of spring and summer. As you know, it rarely sets up perfect for everyone.


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