Weather Wise - Weather Forecast

All Over Again…

If you read this article on a regular basis or talked to me at the Beef Short Course in College Station early in August, you know I have been talking about the return of La Nina for a long time.  Wasn’t it Yogi Berra that said that?  Déjà Vu All Over Again…  Well, this is certainly what it feels like from a forecast perspective.  Unfortunately, I have nothing but bad news in regard to the ongoing drought in Texas.  All tropical entities aside, this article will be the quick and dirty of what to expect in the next several months and what will be driving that forecast.  What will be driving the forecast you ask?  LA NINA is going to drive it…  She put us where we are, and she is coming back again for round two.

La Nina:

All that “blue shading” in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean looks familiar doesn’t it?  La Nina is coming back and coming back strong.  This is typically when La Nina intensifies, if there is going to be a La Nina, and it only gets stronger in the next 3 to 4 months.  Here is the latest computer model projection of how strong this La Nina may be:

All of those colored lines that drop between -1.5 and -2.5 indicated that not only will La Nina be back, but she could be stronger than the last one!  Keep in mind, the last La Nina was the strongest one since 1917.  Given that the east-central Pacific Ocean never really warmed back up effectively and the overall pattern never really changed, it stands to reason that getting back to a strong La Nina will be an easy task.  I see no reason to argue otherwise…  Plus, the model shows La Nina remaining strong right through next Spring.

What does this mean?  Now just like anything, there are always exceptions.  But we aren’t talking about the exceptions here.  We are talking about the current pattern and history when we make our forecast.  As you can probably guess, my forecast means more of the same.  Here is a computer model projection of what we will likely see through the spring and it fits nicely with what I am expecting.  

Precipitation Forecast:

As you can see from the above three graphics, there is a very strong signal for drier than normal conditions where the orange and red shading is placed.  Just like last year, there could be a narrow couple week window of opportunity for cold and moisture in The South, in January or early February.  However, this will be an aberration in the pattern, and is not representative of what to expect in the long term.  As you can see from the March, April, May graphic, the drought signal is incredibly strong from about I-80 south into the Southern Plains.  I think that may be a bit too far north, as I-70 south is more realistic.  Either way, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and much of the Gulf Coast region will likely struggle to get any moisture.  Meanwhile, the northern states will likely have an especially wet and cold winter.  This is very consistent with what happened in the winter and spring of 2010/11.  

Temperature:

There is a very strong signal for warmer than normal temperatures across the southern half of the country.  I actually think the model is putting the warmer than normal temperatures a little too far north.  Again, once you get north of I-80, I expect some pretty chilly weather this winter and spring.  However, that doesn’t change the fact that the Desert Southwest, Western High Plains, Southern Plains, and Gulf Coast Region will likely be much warmer than normal this winter and spring.

You want additional support for the above model projections?  All you have to do is look at the on-going drought in Arizona, New Mexico, southeast Colorado, southwest Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.  Drought will continue to feed on drought.  Dry soil heats up much more effectively than dry soil, or soil that has good vegetation covering it.  Since those regions are lacking both of those elements, it stands to reason that those same regions will be dealing with drought and much above normal temperatures as we head into next spring.

Like I said earlier in this article, there are always exceptions to every rule.  Believe me, I hope I am wrong.  However, history, computer model information, and my own gut says there won’t be any exception.  Just more of the same…  

 

As always feel free to drop me a line if you have questions:  bbledsoe@southernlivestock.com

We'll chat again in October.

Brian

WEATHER WISE SPONSORED BY:

1-866-556-7446