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Weather Wise - Weather Forecast

published: October 6th 2017
by: Brian Bledsoe
I know a lot of you are wondering what this upcoming winter will bring.  There’s a lot of talk about La Niña and what it could mean for Texas and surrounding areas.  The latest ensemble of models continues to show a weak to moderate La Niña episode that may last through spring.
All of those lines below the “zero line” are indicative of the models forecasting a La Niña episode.  Notice the darker shaded yellow line?  That is the mean forecast of all the models.  It also tends to come back toward neutral territory by later in the spring.
NMME Model Precipitation Forecast
December - February
The NMME model shown above shows a stout dry signal (brown shading) over Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico, with some of that creeping into some of the Gulf Coast states.  This also includes West and Southwest Texas…
CFSv2 Model Precipitation Forecast
December - February
The CFSv2 Model also shows a similar setup, but the dry signal extends a bit farther north across a large part of Texas.  This is more in line with how a typical winter shapes up with a La Niña episode...
JAMSTEC Model Precipitation Forecast
December - February
The JAMSTEC Model also shows most of Texas being drier than average. The most pronounced dry signal exists for Southeast Texas.  Parts of The Southeast are also showing up drier than average, as is California…
Bottomline, I would prepare for a drier than average winter based on what I am seeing right now.  The models support this thinking, and La Niña episodes usually portend drier than average weather for the southern tier of the United States.  Granted, all La Niña episodes are different and offer different challenges, but I would certainly prepare for some dry time this winter. More on this next month…
If you have any questions or comments, please drop me an email… Brian Bledsoe

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