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Weather Wise - Weather Forecast

published: September 16th 2016

Now that we are in September, I thought it prudent to show you what the models are suggesting for fall.  Let’s look at what three different models are suggesting:

NMME Model:
September-November Temperature:
 
September-November Precipitation:
The NMME Model shows warmer than average conditions for all of the U.S., especially the West.  It also shows spotty dryness across the U.S., especially the Pacific Northwest, parts of the Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley, as well as the Northeast.  In general though, nothing terribly concerning.  
CFSv2 Model:
September-November Temperature:
September-November Precipitation:
The CFSv2 Model doesn’t show much difference from the NMME Model.  Most of the U.S. is forecast to be above average in the temperature department, with the exception of some parts of Southwest Texas.  It also picks up on the dryness that looks possible across the Gulf Coast and The Southeast.  That signal appears to be strong in both models.  
 
JAMSTEC Model:
September-November Temperature:
September-November Precipitation:
No surprise the the JAMSTEC Model has the whole U.S. warmer than average.  However, the dryness that shows up in the JAMSTEC Model is more significant from Texas northeastward into the Eastern Great Lakes.  I am skeptical that type of dryness would be that widespread, but it is something that we need to watch.  Am I worried about something like that happening and expanding beyond the next three months?  No, not at this time…

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