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Weather Wise - Weather Forecast

published: March 11th 2016
by: Brian Bledsoe
If you’ve been reading my articles for a while, you know that when new model information becomes available I like to share it with you.  Spring and early summer are such critical times for moisture.  If we don’t get it, it paves the way for dryness and heat to take hold during the heart of the summer.  With El Niño likely on the way out and likely to be replaced by La Niña, it is even more important that we capitalize on the possible moisture during the next few months.  The maps below reflect the forecast from the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble.  Green shading means potential for above normal moisture, while brown indicates potential for below normal moisture.
April Precipitation Forecast: 
May Precipitation Forecast:
June Precipitation Forecast:
July Precipitation Forecast:
August Precipitation Forecast:
September Precipitation Forecast:
October Precipitation Forecast:
You can see from the above maps that moisture prospects through the spring still appear to be “OK”...  After we get past April and early May, the greatest chances for wetter than normal weather shift westward.  Drier than normal chances then start to increase across a small part of Texas in July, before expanding greatly in August.  This fits with the general forecast that I have been talking about for months.  While spring moisture may still end up being good for many, we have to be very efficient how we utilize that moisture.  Why?  Because it appears that our above normal moisture chances decrease quite a bit during the heart of the summer into early fall.  If La Niña is slower to appear, then our chances for better moisture would be a bit better.  Keep in mind, this does not take into account the “tropical storm season wildcard”, where hurricane activity could help offset the summer drying.  That is something we cannot rely on…  I’ll be watching the decaying El Niño episode during the next month, and give you additional info on when it may end in next month’s article.  For the time being, enjoy the moisture while you’ve got it.

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