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home articles Weather Forecast |

Weather Wise

published: May 27th 2022
by: Brian Bledsoe

Here we are at the end of May, so let’s have a look at what the models are suggesting for the upcoming summer.
NMME Model Forecast

    The NMME is suggesting a substantial amount of heat across areas that are being hit the hardest by the drought. This includes parts of Western Kansas, Colorado, West Texas and New Mexico, as well as most of the Desert Southwest. High probability of above average temperatures for those areas in darker orange and gray…

Most areas influenced by the drought will likely continue to be somewhat droughty. However, the wildcard for Texas and the Gulf Coast is what happens with the hurricane season. Given the La Niña in place, an above average hurricane season is expected. This may help alleviate some of the dryness for some areas, but certainly isn’t something we should immediately bank on.
EURO Seasonal Model

    Looks pretty similar to the NMME model, but does have the warmer than average anomaly concentrated a little farther to the east/northeast. This is likely due to the fact that an active monsoon season is anticipated. More clouds in Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of Colorado would hold temperatures down a bit.

    You can see the green shading for those areas I mentioned above, indicating an active monsoon season. You can also see the green shading along the Gulf Coast. This could indicate more frequent tropical storm or hurricane potential. Areas farther north will  likely see drier than average conditions.
    While this isn’t written in stone, I do worry about hotter than average temperatures and drier than average precipitation across parts of the region. It won’t impact everyone, but it is certainly something to pay close attention to… Plus, we are likely going to remain in La Niña for the remainder of the year. This means that even if drought is mitigated at times this summer, the threat for return will be there in the fall and early winter.

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