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Weather Wise

published: May 1st 2020
by: Brian Bledsoe

Most of the region is not suffering from drought. However, there are a few locations that could surely use a drink. The latest Drought Monitor shows that below…

    Folks that live in far South/Southeast Texas are in the grips of some significant dryness, while most of the state to the north is in fine shape. The map below shows total precip anomalies in inches, for the past 30 days. Again, most of the state has been somewhat dry with far East/Northeast Texas doing the best with rainfall.
    I guess my main message continues to be one of worry. Maybe not necessarily in the short term, but I don’t like the “regional dryness” that is taking place farther west and northwest. This can many times lead to an exacerbation of already dry conditions...or “drought creep” as I like to call it. The latest look at the NMME Model, which continues to show a La Niña developing, it doesn’t paint a good picture in the long term.
NMME Model Precipitation Forecast
May-July

July-September

September-November

    The model continues to show the areas that have been getting rain, continuing to get rain. And while there isn’t any excessive dryness in the model through the spring and summer, it really tries to crank up the dry signal in the fall, This is just one model, but as I’ve shared with you before, I am concerned about the potential La Niña and drought potential later this year. If you get the rain in the short term, make sure you make the most of it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us turn off drier than average sooner than the model suggests...if all forecast players stay as forecast. Something I’m watching very closely and have been for quite some time.