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Weather Wise

published: January 10th 2020
by: Brian Bledsoe

Drought update and spring preview
    Hey folks, I hope you all had a great holiday season! I had plenty of time off and enjoyed it all with my family. 
    Here is the latest Drought Monitor…


    Obviously, some areas of Texas are not looking too good. However, when you look at who has been seeing moisture more recently, you can see that it isn’t as terrible in the short term.


    Basically, some areas of Texas are still reflecting the drought, but some areas have also been getting rain. The way the weather pattern has been set up, the farther east you live, the more rain you have been getting. That is likely the way it will continue in the short term.
    The latest Euro Seasonal Model Precipitation Forecast is shown below.
January


February


March


April


May


    Even into the spring months, you can see that the model continues to keep the wetter than average bias over eastern areas. This seems to break down a bit in May, but that is still a few months away. And I would be concerned about that actually verifying, when the best rain has favored eastern areas for so long. Bottom-line, the farther west you live, I would be concerned about the dryness or drought continuing and potentially becoming a bigger problem. Eastern areas appear to be ok for now, and likely will remain that way.  In fact, it could be the opposite problem and flooding could become a concern for some areas. I’ll continue to monitor this trend and keep you updated.

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