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Weather Wise

published: October 4th 2019
by: Brian Bledsoe

Drought update and a look ahead

With the exception of the far east and southeast part of Texas (rainfall from Imelda), the rest of Texas continues to slip deeper and deeper into this “flash drought”. The map below shows you the worst areas, as of right now:

The central part of the state continues to struggle the most, because beneficial rain has been going to the northwest and to the southeast of the area. This likely is not going to change for a while. However, I do think there will be a pattern change that will be quite favorable for erasing a lot of the drought. Here is the Euro Seasonal Model from last month. The next update is due in a couple weeks, but I wanted to show you what it is forecasting.

October Precipitation Forecast

November Precipitation Forecast

December Precipitation Forecast

After what could likely be another dry month (for some of us) in October, the pattern breaks and delivers much above average precipitation for much of the area. This is especially true across the east half of Texas and across most of the southeast U.S. So for now, we are kind of in a holding pattern until this stubborn weather pattern can break. However, the good thing is that it looks as though it will. Other models are showing a similar break in the pattern, and that bodes well for not making this “flashy drought” something a lot worse.