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Weather Wise

published: August 10th 2018
by: Brian Bledsoe

I know we are still in the thick of summer, but that will change before you know it.  I have been looking at a lot of different models and data.  I always want to share that information with you, as it provides some insight as to what we might see.  I rarely take the models at face value this far out, but they many times will provide a roadmap to what we may see.  This article focuses on the JAMSTEC Model.  See below…

JAMSTEC Model Precipitation Forecast
Essentially, the JAMSTEC is calling for a wet fall and an average winter.  Per my article last month, it depends on what type of El Niño we see.   A traditional El Niño usually means wet across the board, but a Modoki is more tricky.  The “dry signal” that shows up for the Mississippi Valley is something to watch, in case future runs expand it southward.  
JAMSTEC Model Temperature Forecast
The model also calls for an average to cooler than average fall, with a colder than average winter.  That seems to line up nicely with the historics, when a Modoki El Niño is in play.  So, if the JAMSTEC is to be believed, drought won’t be a huge issue for most of the region.  Areas farther northeast might have something to be concerned about.  The cold signal for the winter is pretty impressive and is something to pay attention to, especially if additional model runs show it.
The coming months will provide a clearer picture of what type of El Niño we will see (likely Modoki), which will give the model more confidence in its solution.  This will give me more confidence in the solution, too.  So, this is an early projection from one model, but it is something I  wanted you all to see.

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