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The Next Three Months - Weather Forecast

published: October 21st 2010
by: Weather Wise By Brian Bledsoe

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Hey folks, hope you all had a great summer.  Hard to believe that it is Fall, but I have stopped being shocked at how fast the time goes…  Anyhow, it is time to get down to business with a look at the rest of Fall and early Winter.  While some areas have gotten by with some late Summer rain ( much of central and southern Texas courtesy of Hermine ), other areas have gotten remarkably dry.  Guys, that is the influence of the current La Nina and the influence of other atmospheric and oceanic oscillations that I have discussed in previous articles.  Just to briefly revisit one of my favorite explainer graphics when it comes to the various oscillations and what each phase means…

Currently the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in a negative or cool phase, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is in a positive or warm phase, and we are currently under the influence of a strong La Nina.  Our current state resides in the graphic on the lower right ( -PDO +AMO ).  This makes drought frequency pretty high for all of the Southwest United States and some of the western Gulf Coast.  The kicker is that the strong La Nina makes the drought frequency expand to encompass the southeast states too.  The pattern that we are in, resembles what occurred in late 2007 through 2008.  I know many of you remember that time as a time when record drought occurred.  Especially hard hit during that time, was most of Texas, Colorado, New Mexico, and most of the southeast states.  Right now, the drought monitor tells the story…
 

Notice drought showing up across a large part of the western states.  Severe drought is already showing up in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and northern parts of Florida.  Like I was saying, the La Nina makes drought frequency expand to most of the southeast states.  I am afraid that it is only going to get worse for these areas…

With this in mind, the next 3 to 6 months are pretty straight forward in regard to temperature and precipitation.  Did I just say that the next 3 to 6 month forecast is pretty straight forward?  Ha Ha, sometimes on TV I don’t know what will occur in the next hour!  Oh well, some things become more clear at different times…

Below is my temperature outlook for the next 3 months: 
 

With the jet stream roaming through the Pacific Northwest and across the northern states, it stands to reason that these locations will have the best access to cold air and storminess.

Below is the precipitation outlook for the next 3 months:
 

No real surprise here.  I’ve been talking for a long time about how the current long range indicators scream drought for the south and somewhat wet for the north. 

If you live in the southern third of the country and you haven’t taken the necessary steps to prepare for the onset or maintenance of drought, I suggest you do so.  This pattern is creating a positive feedback mechanism within the ocean and the atmosphere.  This simply means that it will be very tough to break.

While I have only given you the forecast for the next 3 months, you can assume that these maps will generally look the same three months from now.  Meaning that the spring will likely be under the influence of the same signals that we are dealing with now. 

As always, if you have any questions please feel free to drop me a line at:

bbledsoe@southernlivestock.com

We’ll chat again in November…