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Analyzing The Drought Monitor

published: November 30th 2010
by: Weather Wise By Brian Bledsoe

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Analyzing The Drought Monitor

Pretty amazing that as I write this article, I have been doing more yard work in shorts, than snow shoveling in a coat.  For those of you that didn’t know, I live in Colorado Springs.  We usually see our first snow in mid October.  Mountain locations have seen some snow, but not down low.  What we have seen is drought.  With all of this warm, dry, and windy weather, one would sure think that drought conditions have expanded in a pretty big way.  Well, let’s check it out.  Drought Monitor from early September:

The yellow, brown and red areas denote drought.  Notice how most of the western plains were in good shape.  Texas was in good shape and most of the Gulf Coast was doing ok.  Granted, there were some areas of drought, especially for folks in eastern OK, AR, and northern LA. Let’s analyze what a recent version of the Drought Monitor looks like:
 

Aside from the Colorado Front Range, drought has really started to expand across the south half of Texas, most of the lower MS Valley and northeast into the Ohio Valley.  Most of the Gulf Coast has rapidly transitioned toward drought too.  This development hasn’t taken that long to occur.  In fact, many areas have gone from drought just starting in September to EXTREME drought in early November.  Southern Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle are prime examples.  If you’ve been reading my articles, you know that I am attributing this rapid and dramatic onset of drought to La Nina.

La Nina will continue to be a main player in the weather across the entire country.  Below is a general map of what type of weather the different regions experience.
 

Notice that most of the areas that are already experiencing drought are likely to continue droughty, until the pattern breaks.  I’m not saying there won’t be any storms in the droughty regions, but the overall frequency of storms will be greatly reduced.  Thus, my forecast remains essentially the same and is on track with what we’ve discussed in previous articles.  See graphics below:

The next time we talk, it will be December.  We will be getting into the Winter season and it will be interesting to see just how much the drought has worsened for some and possibly let up for others.  I think folks in the mid MS Valley and Ohio Valley will be the folks that see some relief.  Other locations, I don’t think will be as lucky.

As always, if you have any questions please feel free to drop me a line:  bbledsoe@southernlivestock.com

Brian