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Agriculture Weather Forecast - Tropical Poker - Weather Forecast

published: August 10th 2010
by: Weather Wise by Brian Bledsoe

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Last time we talked, we focused on the impending La Nina and what it would likely mean for most of the Plains states and the Gulf Coast.  I figured that drought conditions would start to set in by late Summer and continue through the Fall and Winter months.  The Western and Southern Plains likely being hit the hardest by drought. 

Current La Nina status:

Again, notice the blue shaded area extending westward from the western tip of South America.  Ocean temperatures running 1 to 2 degrees C below normal.  La Nina is not only well established, but will likely strengthen through the Fall and early Winter.

  However, we are still a bit early to be talking about widespread La Nina induced drought.  During this "in between" time, we've seen the tropics flair up a bit and develop Alex and almost Bonnie.  Both of those systems had a huge impact on Texas and most of the Southern Plains and western Gulf Coast.  Not necessarily from a direct landfall, but the remnant moisture combined with Summer heat and produced drenching rains.  You folks in the Rio Grande Valley know exactly what I am talking about.  You may be wondering, if La Nina has something to do with this and if this is a sign of things to come.  My answers:  Yes, La Nina will play a roll in an active hurricane season.  La Nina weakens the upper level winds that would tear apart storms, thus implying that the hurricane season is likely to be active.  And yes, this is a sign of things to come.  La Nina in combination with a warmer than normal Atlantic is going to make for an active hurricane season, but not necessarily for the same areas that have been hit early this season.

Check out the map below:

Just for a point of reference, the east coast of the U.S. is on the left and the west coast of Africa is on the right.  All of that yellow shading is ocean water that is warmer than normal.  I.E. fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes.  Notice that most of the Gulf of Mexico is near normal.  Does that mean the Gulf has lesser chances of seeing future storms, because it doesn't have as much fuel as areas to the east?  No.  It simply means that there is no "super hurricane fuel" currently in the Gulf.  All of that lies to the east.  But there is more to it than simply how warm the water is.  There is the upper level winds that steer future storms.

  Above shows the mid level winds in the atmosphere that give us an idea of where storms will go, if they get going.  Notice the arrows running from east to west across the tropics.  Of importance is that H sitting near Bermuda of the east coast of the U.S. If a storm were to form on the south side of that High, the storm would likely move toward Florida or the Southeast Coast of the U.S.  If a storm forms in the Caribbean, it would likely end up in Central America or Mexico.  Right now, the steering currents are not conducive for steering a storm directly into the Gulf of Mexico and into the Gulf Coast states.  Yes, this is good news.  Later in the season, this may change.  However, with the position of that Bermuda High so close to the U.S., I think the East Coast of the U.S. is at much higher risk for a big storm than the Gulf of Mexico.  If the Bermuda High moves farther east, the storms will likely curve to the north before hitting the U.S.  Is this possible?  Sure.  But I think the High is going to be in a position to constantly put the eastern seaboard at greater risk.

Apparently the folks at the Climate Prediction Center agree with my thinking.  The map below shows the U.S. and the areas likely to receive above normal precipitation, below normal precipitation, and areas that are likely to be near normal ( EC ).

This map is a forecast made about a month ago for the months of August, September, and October. 

  Notice that portions of the Gulf Coast and the Southeast U.S. have a strong likelihood of seeing above normal precipitation.  This is due to the likelihood of an active hurricane season threatening the Southeast U.S.  Other areas likely to see above normal moisture are the Northern Plains.  The Northern Plains bullseye is is a classic La Nina signal and one that is likely to persist for the next several months.  In fact, I think the Northern Plains are in for a wet and cold Fall and Winter.
 

 So, is it possible that there will be a few more storms impact the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Coast states?  Absolutely.  Things should really get active by mid to late August.  But I think the possibilities of the eastern Gulf being impacted are greater than the western Gulf.  This is why the tropics are such a wild card during a La Nina.  If you see a storm or two, you will likely have a surplus in the moisture department.  If you don't see a storm or two, you will likely start feeling the impacts of the impending La Nina drought.  Feast or famine you say?  Boy, you got that right!  Tropical poker anyone?  I'll deal...
 

 Next month I will start providing regional forecasts, as we will have a better idea of how the tropical season is going to unfold and the impact it will have on various regions.  If you want to chat with me sooner than next month, you can do so on Southern Livestock's Facebook or drop me an email:  bbledsoe@southernlivestock.com