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Lower Corn Crop Yield Expected

published: September 3rd 2011
source: KTIC

The Linn Group, a Chicago-based commodity research and brokerage firm, on Wednesday lowered its forecast of the 2011 U.S. corn yield to 149.1 bushels per acre, from 152.1 early this month. The firm cut its estimate of U.S. 2011 corn production to 12.391 billion bushels, from 12.775 billion previously. The estimates fell below the U.S. Department of Agriculture's current corn yield forecast of 153.0 bushels per acre and production forecast of 12.914 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the Linn Group reduced its estimate of the 2011 U.S. soybean yield to 41.0 bushels per acre, from 43.0 in early August. The firm lowered its soy production estimate to 2.997 billion bushels, from 3.148 billion. USDA's current forecast for U.S. soybean production is for 3.056 billion bushels with a yield of 41.4 bpa.

The Linn Group said its production forecasts were based on estimates of harvested acreage that fall below USDA's current figures. The firm pegged harvested corn acres at 83.1 million, below USDA's figure of 84.4 million, and harvested soybean acres at 73.1 million, below USDA's 73.8 million.

The Linn Group said corn and soybean crops were hurt by less-than-ideal weather in July and August. "Corn development has been under pressure from the start this year, with a wet spring delaying field work, followed by flooding at critical times, then severe July heat, and finally a dry August for many key Midwest growing areas. The deterioration has been particularly acute in the Eastern Corn Belt," the firm said in a statement. "August is the critical month for soy development; unfortunately, forecasted rains failed to materialize and heat is adding to stress," the firm said.

The Linn Group said its crop forecasts were based on customer input, field observations, weather analysis and satellite data. USDA was scheduled to release updated estimates on Sept.