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Over My Shoulder

published: June 12th 2009
by: J.D. Sartwelle, Jr.

May, the last of the spring months is gone and was good on some and not so good on others.  Some areas received good moisture during the month, some did not.  On the market side, some news was good, some was not.. On the political side, some was good, some was not.    What’s different? May was a usual kind of month, full of good and the not so good.
    May probably saw more cloudy days during the month than sunshine, and put down a good bit of moisture in some areas and didn’t put it down in other areas.  The central and eastern part of the state seemed to get more than other areas, while west and south Texas continued needing moisture badly.  Even the areas that did receive the rain ended the month needing more to keep crops as well as pasture grasses thriving.  Can we ever get too much in the month of May?  By the end of May, plenty of spring growth hay had been made despite a slow growing start in most areas due to the cooler nights at the first of the month.
    In the market place, we saw sideway movements in the fed complex and saw a huge bomb dropped on the pork complex due to its perceived identity with h1n1 flu, alias swine flu.  By month’s end another bomb was dropped on cowboys as the market place began to gear up to handle the increased numbers of slaughter cows that will be coming in the next dairy buyout.
    On the political side, the economy, fighting wars, nukes and rockets, and additions to the Supreme Court dominated the news.  On the ag side, the dairy herd buyout, Canada with their 16th case of BSE, and Japan with twenty some odd cases of BSE receiving a “Controlled Risk Status” from the OIE and the US with two cases and umpteen times the number of cows  has to beg for a “negligible  risk status” from OIE.  But the big, big item on the political front for most cowboys is current considerations concerning the National Animal Identification System (NAIS).  There are those in congress who are pressing for a 48 hour trace back program while the Secretary of Agriculture is conducting “listening sessions” in various parts of the country.
    The big question is, should we have a voluntary or a mandatory program, should we have a book end system, or a full fledged 48 hour trace back program, and how much will it cost, and who will pay for it, and is it worth it?
    In the market place, the industry pacesetter fed cattle market saw weakness throughout the month as an $86 dollar market at the first of month turned into a $84.00 market at the end.  Movement was curtailed by packers that were still controlling harvest levels each week and by months end began to back up and cause a larger than ordinary carry over of ready cattle at month end.
    Meanwhile in the county, calf and cow runs during May were hampered in some areas by rainy conditions and slowed down.  By month’s end, the calf trade remained brisk on moderate numbers and the cow and bull trade began feeling the effects of the Dairy Buyout that was set to begin.  Calf prices ended stronger than they started by several dollars while the cows and bulls lost four to five bucks live.
    In the pork complex, the erroneous association of the industry with the world wide flu bug, made many shy away from eating pork both at home and abroad and the industry suffered the ill effects of the association.
    It will get seasonally warmer as we progress into June, let’s hope that we continue to experience the unsettled weather that can create moisture as there is still a great need for those who have not had any to get it and for those who have had it, to keep getting more.